Forecast Skill Assessment

Forecast skill assessment evaluates how accurate and reliable forecasts are at predicting specific hazards or impacts before they occur. This process is essential to ensure that anticipatory actions are based on trustworthy information.

Key Aspects

• Accuracy: Measures how closely forecasted events match actual outcomes, including hazard intensity, location, and timing.
• Reliability: Assesses the consistency of forecasts over time and across different scenarios. Reliable forecasts should yield similar results under similar conditions.
• Lead Time: Evaluates whether forecasts provide enough advance notice to implement effective anticipatory actions, balancing early action with the uncertainty that comes with longer lead times.
• Bias and Uncertainty: Identifies and addresses biases in forecast models and quantifies prediction uncertainty, supporting informed decision-making despite inherent uncertainties.

By thoroughly assessing forecast skill, we help National Societies (NSs) improve the effectiveness of their anticipatory actions, reducing false alarms and missed opportunities to mitigate the impacts of impending hazards.

Our Services

We offer forecast skill assessment services to evaluate the accuracy and reliability of available forecasts over different lead times. These assessments inform Early Action Protocol (EAP) trigger design, helping determine expected forecast skill at various lead times and guiding the selection of cost-effective early actions.